A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
